From what I’m reading, the troubles should start to pick up now; harbors being quieter, truckers not having work, … Are any shortages noticeable yet?
ETA:
Source: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-is-a-virus
Businesses have been filling their inventories. That’s ending now. Economic pain in terms of job losses should accelerate now. It will still take up to a few weeks before inventories run empty, and the full impact hits consumers. Even a full reversal of Trumpism couldn’t prevent knock-on effects that last into next year.
OP’s data shows the U.S. is stocking up tremendously in April, and then maintaining year-on-year patterns after that with a slight downturn that doesn’t even compensate for April’s glut.
I haven’t seen this data before but it shows the opposite of the shortage I was expecting.
May still be a few weeks more before it’s critical then.
You seem to be misreading that.
Please correct me, then. The surprising moment came when I noticed the vertical axis is for year-on-year change and not raw tonnage.
Yes. It goes from much higher than last year to much lower.
My read was that it was much higher to prepare inventory for the tariff shock
I think the issue is you’re waiting for the negatives to be equal to the surplus of one month, when the trend (from three points of data so do with that what you will) is negative. So, ostensibly, after enough months of negatives, there will be much, much more negative than positives.
Yup that’s exactly what I was doing, and I was surprised that the negatives won’t catch up until at least 3 months which brings us to July at the earliest.
- The chart shows weeks, not months.
- It shows scheduled arrivals of vessels in LA. It may not be safe to equate that to freight arriving in the US.
My company layed off the newest hire, and bought $50k of materials we need for R&D for the next year and a half. Im in the process of buying a duplex instead of a single family as a hedge, so my cost of living will be low enough to survive on my wife’s part time salary if we can keep a renter. I will be planting food producing trees and bushes, and building garden boxes after close, and learning canning.
Look for bareroot trees if you want a better deal.
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I am really curious about how much media attention the consequences of the Orange Man’s moves will get. Fascism is at work and the first thing fascists do is get control of the media.
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This hits home. I was just here pondering if I’d take meaningful action given forewarning but doubt myself.
I’m soupmaxxing
Already have everything I should need for the next few years besides consumables. Considering buying a few buckets of emergency food from Costco. Other than that, bending over and lubing up because I can’t keep a cactus alive, much less crops.
Most of what I grow is for flavour rather than sustenance, pretty limited space. Doubt I will survive for long off garlic, bay leaves and rosemary with a sprinkling of mint.
I’m far less worried about the imminent supply shock to the economy and far more worried about the long term damage to things like the FDA. We’ve decided we’re going to try to go from ~10% vegetarian to closer to 80% or 100% because I simply don’t trust that thing like meat and milk can stay safe to consume. I do have a solid amount of food in my house, and if shelves start emptying I think I’ll be okay for a bit, but that’ll pass. I can’t really leave this country, so I need to be planning for longer term problems too.
I have this fear that we won’t even be able to trust fruits and vegetables. The most common food contaminations in the news always seem to be unwashed lettuce and such, which makes sense because of fertilizers.
I’ve been preparing for some kind of problem with produce for a few years, I just had a gut feeling so I built a vegetable garden 3 years ago. Also have been planting fruit trees everywhere.
Ive been stockpiling canned proteins like tuna, chicken, clams, oysters, etc. even Spam. They may not be trustworthy in the future, but they are right now, so stack them up.
I can make a cheap but killer soup with a can of chicken, some ramen, and herbs, and i can even grow the herbs myself.
We’ve decided we’re going to try to go from ~10% vegetarian to closer to 80% or 100% because I simply don’t trust that thing like meat and milk can stay safe to consume.
Farmers’ markets (or direct from a local farm/butcher) are probably your best bet for what meat you do buy, if you don’t go full veg
It’s quite crazy to hear that the US is about to force UK and EU to buy more chlorinated chicken, and then hear that US will stop salmonela testing while negotiating this.
While the nation was functioning, meat and dairy would have been regulated by the USDA, not the FDA.
Are they gonna blow up some vessels? What doe she negative number mean? XD
The negative number means that far fewer ships are arriving in LA than at the same time last year.
I think shortages will be short-lived as companies and retailers just have to suck it up and pay more. People won’t be able to buy as much stuff, so layoffs and a recession or depression are likely, but there’s not much I can think of doing to prepare for that.
But they don’t have to suck it up, not really. They can just stop buying entire classes of items. The question is what Americans will now live without.
Food and housing are the only classes many have left.
Most aren’t even aware that this is coming.
A large portion of the rest are in denial. So many people can only learn through the lens of their own experience
I can’t wait to watch all the Trump-suckers loose their shit when they find out it’s Trump’s fault. If they can actually comprehend it as true, that is.
narrator: they did not
They’ll just say it’s Biden’s fault…
That is also my knee-jerk reaction, but with Tariffs it’s a pretty direct correlation to Trump now. Hopefully this will be what finally breaks him?
They’ll say it, but they won’t truly believe it. They’ll know the truth, or at least those that still possess some human awareness. There will always be those that are irredeemable, you can’t worry about them, they’re just lost.
Casual Qur’anic comment, lol. 😅
People don’t really know what to do, except save money, cut back on disposable spending, and watch carefully. Maybe buy some big things early like a laptop or EV now rather than wait for the shock. The big problems are a few weeks to months away.
There are many more things people can do, and many are. The problem is, going 100% prepper is a failing strategy, too. So how far to go? It is a difficult situation.
I haven’t actually been living for the past 30 years.
Smart play
Hotblack Desiato, is that you?
I was looking at a reolink camera last night.
About $80 on Amazon.
On aliexpress (where the reolink website itself directs you for check out), the same camera is over $200.
Ali vendors were jacking up prices long before the exception removal date and before even some of the tariffs went into effect.
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Not yet here. Maybe a few more weeks?
