Donald Trump has repeatedly pledged to slash the national deficit and curb debt during his second term, but a sobering assessment of the nation’s financial health by one of the federal government’s premier fiscal watchdogs suggests Trump 2.0’s policies have not only collectively pushed the federal deficit significantly higher, but put the country on an unsustainable path.
In its latest budget and economic outlook, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan federal agency, revised its cumulative deficit projection for the 2026–2035 period upward by $1.4 trillion compared with its forecast from just a year ago.
“Our budget projections continue to indicate that the fiscal trajectory is not sustainable,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel said in a statement, noting the agency’s latest projections. Under laws passed in Trump’s first year back in office, the national debt in 2030 will surpass the historic high of 106% of GDP, which it reached in 1946. Meanwhile, the balance of Social Security’s Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2032, one year earlier than the CBO projected last January.
Remember when conservatives at least pretended to be fiscally conservative?
Now it’s 100% a bigot platform. No room left for pretending about actually governing.
They’re planning on snapping the neck of the global financial system and forcing the world to use crypto.
I actually get the feeling that the US stock market is being turned into a pump-and-dump scheme, not piecemeal but entire.
It’s weird, because I’m watching and reading about how many investors seem to be “quietly” shifting into more international funds.
If you even look at ETFs like VTI (closely matches S&P 500) vs. VXUS (International):
VTI went up 11.3% in the past year. Hey, that’s beating inflation and not terrible.
But: meanwhile, VXUS went up 30.8%.
In the past, it was usually the other way around. ETFs that track things like the S&P tend to outperform ones that track the rest of the rest of the market.
I wonder what is different about the past year?
Also, I keep seeing articles like this. https://harveylawcorporation.com/why-more-americans-are-leaving-the-us/
I mean, I’ve been doing that.
Youre right- the general logic was sp500 and if anything, a bit in international to diversify. With the way the us is being run it’s way more savvy to hedge your bets with vtiawx/vxus, especially when you know the ai bubble is propping up the American side.
Every once in a while, I dip into various Boglehead forums and see what kind of discussion is going on around their current thinking on the three fund portfolio and the way to divvy it up.
Of course, looking back only a year and trying to time/second-guess things generally goes against the principles of Boglehead investing, but you still see people wondering about it even among Bogleheads.
It is entirely possible that what the donnie crime family is doing to this country is very different than trends of the past.
Yep. John bogle famously never wanted international AFAIK.
And the favorite saying is past returns don’t guarantee future performance. This couple administrations have turned the world on its head so I’m not surprised to see people looking at things differently even if it goes against how things have trended for a half century plus.
https://mmt101.substack.com/p/mmt-basics-national-debt-defined
Can we all please learn how money works? The source of all USD can’t run out of USD.
Thank you. No fan of Donvict, but people tend to overlook MMT in all these discussions about debt.
I hate him, too, but I’m tired of seeing this same old bullshit misunderstanding. And you can see no one wants to take ten minutes to learn we’ve been lied to our entire lives about how the monetary system works. It’s so infuriating.
If you have a favorite book or documentary that you’d recommend, I’d love to know about it.
https://www.amazon.com/Macroeconomics-William-Mitchell/dp/1137610662
That is a full macroeconomics text book written from the MMT perspective.
If you want something a bit less dense, The Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton goes over some decent basics.
They write most articles from the MMT perspective.
Thanks, I appreciate it.
You’re very welcome!
Indeed, the only concern is inflation, can never run out of US Dollars.
The worry is not that we run out - it’s what happens when we print too much
You make sure the lower classes are given a proportional amount to keep purchasing.
Can you link to a source for this?
I’m not aware of any historical examples or even theoretical models for this approach.
There is a lot of things I blame neo hitler for but “ the US on an unsustainable fiscal path” is something that has been true for decades, and is more a global consequence of capitalism itself.
While you’re right this unsustainable way up until now was hedged in by worries about long term stability… something the orange doesn’t concern itself about.
Well how this is supposed to work is to borrow in bad times and pay it back in good. Clinton, to his credit did do this. Trump did the complete opposite in his first term. And the main reason we are in bad times now is because of him.
Yeah, the new deal was a prime example of it working. When there’s no work because nobody has any money to spend because there’s no work like in the great depression the government taking out loans to hire a bunch of people to improve the country in various ways is a great investment. It breaks the deadlock. But if you don’t take it back out of times where the economy can handle some slowing you just get inflation and you lose your control lever for when the economy slows down. High highs cause low lows, and while nobody likes the economy slowing down (hence why presidents stopped doing it) people prefer a stable economy with lessened booms and busts
Who would have thought the king of bankruptcy would have done this!?
Trump: Wanna see some magic?
MAGA: Sure.
Trump: Look over there it’s an immigrant!
MAGA looks
Trump pickpockets
MAGA: Hey, where’s my wallet?
Trump: Oh look, it vanished and it’s now in my pocket! What a magic!
MAGA: You’re so great!
That’s part of the plan: https://theweek.com/business/why-trump-wants-weak-dollar
No worries, the genius American people will blame this on Obama.
That’s exactly right. Assuming we get another election a dem will be in power when this shit starts hitting the fan so that’s all maga will blame it on.
What will happen is that Americans will completely ignore this until a president of the opposite party gets elected and is left trying to fix this crap. Then suddenly it’s like “look how incompetent this party is! We’re so in debt right now!”.
He’s balancing the budget. Fake news. And that ten million, he deserves it. And those children he had sex with, he only did it to get Epstein arrested. We know the snowflakes don’t like it when we get upset at them not speaking the way we want. They need a safe space from us trying turn America into a place that is secure for white christian people to never be disagreed with or competed with. The bluehairs can’t handle us wasting our gasoline we complained costs too much when we roll coal on them. Lol haha sorry libturds you can’t call us names anymore.
I sincerely hope this is satire because I’ve met people that think this way.
I swapped most of my savings to Euros instead of American Dollars. A member of my residence thinks that is a weird move. Hopefully, one of us will be wrong.
simple solution to fix social security, at least, is to remove the cap on contributions, so the billionaires can pay their share.
I dont know what the fuck we’re gonna do about the debt though.
Deficit spending has historically worked out well because the US has been able to borrow at a rate lower than inflation, making it actually cheaper to borrow money and pay it off later. The national debt isn’t much of a concern unless we tank our credit and reputation.
So it’s a huge fucking concern.
My understanding is that our debt burden now equals our GDP with interest payments about 1 trillion dollars annually. Looks like we’re headed into a debt spiral with an economy stalling. Not an economist, but it seems like a worst-case scenario.
Thats okay, we’re also tariffing the fuck out of everyone and alienating any and every trading partner to the point they are seeking to replace us with alternatives.
Surely that will fix everything.
Yep. Everyone is in the “get out” - phase right now. Tariffs was a weapon for economic war against another country. Trump uses it on allies. Your president and vice president, litterally calling EU blood suckers, and blames us for your horrors. Even though we litterally only bought american tech, infrastructure, militiary equipment, entertainment, etc. To please the united states for keeping us safe. Now you say we gave you Nothing back. This is not a great way of treating trading partners.
But think about all the bribes and money he was able to personally slurp up. Sure, we’ll have to shoulder the burden as American citizens, but won’t it be worth it if he can afford another golden toilet?
That is the right american mindset right there! USA is a great economy, as long as the 1% gets even more rich. When they get richer, the 99% gets more crumbs. As it should be.
So what they’re saying is really this is Bidens and Obamas fault? Diaper Donnie had nothing to do with this surely. lol
How’s all that winning going for you lot? Feel great yet?
Wait until you see hyper-inflation!
“I’d like a Venti Lat-tahy”
When burning your money makes more sense cuz firewood is too expensive, that’s hyper-inflation lol.
I predict the administration will take this feedback and examine ways to… just kidding, there will be deranged posts, threats, and some kind of ham handed attempt to take over or disband the CBO.
I know people in the CBO. They are… bean counters. Very very good bean counters. But, maybe even easier to fascist away than the Fed.
Doesn’t the CBO sit in the legislative branch and not under the executive though?
So they’re under the strong protection of complicit GOP and spineless obedient Dems?
Don’t forget the 1000 mentions of passing the blame to Biden and how much they have to spend to revive the country or something like that.
