Oh when the bubble pops ram is gonna be insanely cheap
Don’t you worry if it pops they will just slow down the factories, or close them and fire people to get it stay as where they are.
Serious question: Is it compatible? I was under the impression they were making a different type of RAM. I’m sure if will get cheaper after if they’ve increased production, but if it’s not compatible it might still be relatively expensive (still cheaper than now) for some time as supply catches up to suppressed consumer demand.
not if companies go broke
not if companies go broke
That’s what a bubble popping is. NVidia is over-inflated. AI datacenters are over-inflated. The bubble will pop, many will go out of business, and all of their hardware will be liquidated.
Realistically, a whole lot of the high bandwidth memory products that they are producing will never find their way into consumer products.
When the dotcom bubble popped there were a lot of Assets in by products which could be adopted by other companies or distributed to a wide array of potential users, but the E-Waste and byproducts of this era are going to be niche and esoteric.
I think a lost decade is much more likely than a Renaissance of repurposing.
I’m just hoping the big three memory manufacturers that have essentially contracted all of their volumes across the next several Cycles will be able to survive whatever collapse hits their account receivable when they’ve done exactly what they said they would but the people with the purchase orders leave them holding the bag.
LOL. The biggest area of tech investing right now is alternative video cards and RAM for the home consumer market. The Wang dropped the ball on what made the company chasing a Ponzi scheme. This is so ripe for perturbation.
See Bolt Graphics…dual PCI connect options, upgradable VRAM, non proprietary hardware…
Ah yes, history has shown that prices never fluctuate.
It’s obviously to Lenovo’s benefit to have people believe that RAM prices will not drop, so that they will not wait out the current price surge.
The price will drop if supply exceeds demand, and if competition increases.
Supply demand economics was a great concept in grade 8, but in the real world, price fixing and monopolies rule unchecked.
Imagine if all of us cared about the regulatory capture rampant in the baby formula industry they gave us that US baby formula crisis at the start of the decade, as much as we care about our computer memory.
Myth vs reality type thing. A charitable thing to say is that its an incomplete theory. There are political interests to keep it that way.
As an old person, I recall a time period when there were lots of so-called RAM optimization software packages out there. It would be interesting to see if that sort of thing makes a comeback.
Yes, the operating system is far better at managing resources than back then, but I’d bet that lots of fun new malware will sprout up masked as such.
You mean RAMdoubler? That was a scam.
Expect an import ban on Chinese made ram to be coming soon.
It is critical to national profits. I wonder how trump’s kids are involved in this like every other scheme he rigs.
The trump administration has determined that it is critical to national security that americans play all new games at medium graphics settings or lower.
Trump was told the enemy could see him across the map.
Oh, I better then go ahead and buy them at high prices before it turns out in 2-3 years that he was wrong.
Why is never in quotes?
Because they are trying their best to keep it like this.
Get the Lenovo worker who said this. We shall dip him slowly into a volcano until he changes his mind.
Yeah, I’ll be there waiting for them to rotate their inventory at a loss when it does go down. Meanwhile, fuck Lenovo.
Oh course not. Why lower them when they can keep the prices high and pocket the profits? When you live in hell you can’t expect the devil to not profit on the vices.
We have seen this story before. There will be a oversupply and then they will have to get rid of that inventory.
The article ignores several points.
First, this is one of the conditions where capitalism actually works. Many players in the field dropped out because of the razor thin margins of the past. Fabs take years to ramp up, and are insanely expensive to set up, so getting in to take advantage of a temporary shortage was an unacceptable risk. Now there is a decade(s) long projected shortage, making the investment attractive again. Plenty of players have experience in Fabs, even though they are not up to date.
Also, the market is going to accept that slightly slower ram is quite fine in many applications, and they are easier to make. DDR5/6 is really not that important. I have an AM4 Ryzen 9 with 64Gb DDR4 that flies, I mean the thing cooks! This environment is going to make Chinese Fabs competitive in the mid-term, and give them the opportunity to catch up, especially since the Chinese government subsidizes whole sectors to catch up, and often surpass the west (see EVs, solar, airliners, etc.) maybe they’ll take years to get there, and maybe they won’t match the very top end, but they’ll take over.
We are going to have a shortage and obscene prices, but not as long or hard as doomsayers scream.
Another factor is that the AI bubble is going to pop. LLMs are a dead end, and are already at an extreme diminishing returns point. There is no way the major players are going to recoup investment, and the market will eventually wake up. Open source models are at single digit distance of the most powerful commercial models, so much of the resources are going to shift to in-house.
JEPA is one of the next steps in AI, and is way less hardware intensive. There are several new approaches to AI that are way less hardware intensive. LLMs are plain brute force approaches, and evolution makes efficiency a major goal.
Depends on government policy also I guess. What would most likely happen is for US gov to continue sanction Chinese companies like what they did to cxmt and ymtc to stifle competition and keep prices artificially high
No one is going to stop you from importing a 32 GB DIMM in your anus.
This is your example of capitalism working? Then I don’t want to see it failing.
My friend, have you seen the markets? You’re seeing how capitalism works because it fails.
The benefits are privatized. The losses are socialized. Lather, rinse repeat.
Yes. Capitalism is not bad, it’s actually a sane approach. The problem is when left unchecked, which is the state’s duty, but fucked up by politicians, in the pockets of oligarchs. Have you read Adam Smith? Both Smith’s and Marxs’ thesis fail beacuse they depend and assume inherent good in people, while in reality greed is the driving force in economics, and fuck all else.
AI will remain a massively parallel numerics affair with enormous data sets and monstrous memory bandwidth and network crossection. And accrding energy consumption. Jevon’s paradox will eat any efficiency improvements.
Only if LLMs are the only option. A paradigm change is coming. It’s like what happened when European and Japanese performance cars started to take on American muscle cars or SpaceX (yeah I hate the Nazitard too) started recovering rockets and reusing them, or PCs started replacing mainframe workstations…
There is some question as to whether those rockets are actually being reused.
Look at the enormous processing resources of biological brains. Human brain is 2% of body mass but 20% of baseline metabolism – this is very expensive evolutionary. Neural hardware used for LLMs or just any scientific numerics accelerator is just a bad reinvention. Your argument reminds me of Minsky’s “5 MIPS is enough for AI”. Nope. You have to track a lot of state, its relationships and refresh it all very quickly. Computation is expensive.
Yeah any extra fabs able to produce ‘last gen’ DDR4 would have a big impact.
I have a work issued Lenovo Thinkpad P14S Gen6 AMD with a Ryzen 9 AI, 2TB nvme, and 64GB of GDDR5 RAM. It cost $2600 last October.
Went to buy more of them for other devs last week as their Dells are just hot garbage and are being refunded, who wants to guess what the price of the exact same machine though Lenovo directly again is now?
$6800.
Absolutely insane.
It’s just crazy.
Lenovo apparently ignoring China then
Well, Lenovo is a chinese company.
But not a Chinese ram company.
