The US status as a hegemony.

With India on the rise as well I think we are transitioning into a pre-WW1 like multipolar balance of power which could slide into WW3. Safest option would be China and the US dominate everyone else and we get another Cold War, but we will see.

Russia has been a third world nation since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Politicians just like to use the Russian boogeyman to scare people who remember the Cold War. Putin may be a monster, but China is the real threat.