• 12 Posts
  • 30 Comments
Joined 3 years ago
cake
Cake day: June 19th, 2023

help-circle



  • I’m genuinely surprised by the negative reaction to this post, so I’m going to try to explain why I made it.

    I’m aware of microclimates, and changes in local temperature, and shade and sun and so on. I took the temperature in the shade just now, away from structures, in the garden, and it was 33°. I should have done that initially, but this was not meant to be about my being crazy. This was meant to be about the future of how we can expect temperatures to be measured and then delivered to the public.

    Recently, we have had a heatwave in the EU, the 'heat dome’. You probably heard that before. Once rare, now rather common, it inverts the traditional climate where the coast is temperate and the inland is warmer.

    If we are using models that ignore these new conditions, there is a risk of under-reporting actual temperatures and not taking the very serious climate emergency more seriously. The use of AI, and its documented nature of trying to please the user, concerns me in the face of gathering data for any government body trying to accurately document what is happening.

    I’m sorry if I seemed crazy. I’m just concerned.













  • Appeal to authority is neither a fallacy nor proof. It is rhetoric. It proves nothing, and disproves nothing.

    For example, your authorities debunk “long term health of the earth and her inhabitants it’s (sic) a necessity.” My authorities, like William Catton or Meadows, et. al. would say otherwise. Invoking them doesn’t prove my perspective. It does prove there is much debate about the subject.

    In such instances, defining metrics and showing your work, as the math teachers say, is the best way forward.

    The article in question, for example, relies on hype like ‘670,000, a level never previously recorded since national statistics began in 1899.’ Level of what? Percentage of population? Actual number of people? Compared to how many? With the priviso, for example that ‘The expected figure, … excludes children born to foreign residents”. How many of those? I suspect not many, but it’s necessary to know.

    What the article could have stated are actual metrics such as replacement rate, which in Japan is 1.20. South Korean is considerably lower, at 0.72-0.74. We could use words like ‘cliff’ I guess, but I prefer numbers, and I would encourage their use in articles such as this.


  • Not sure if ‘brought up and debunked by experts’ is the best argument out there. For example, ‘population inertia’ would cover only one lifespan, not centuries. That is to say, whatever the population is now, it could be 10 people to 100 billion people within 100 years. This is not discounting cultural and psychological factors, but if we’re talking human behaviour, that’s literally everything.

    Secondly, the population decline is hardly a cliff. It is decreasing in some countries like Japan, but when added into the global picture, we’re not even at neutral. We’re still growing.

    You are absolutely right that a larger aging population is something that must be addressed. However, if increased population pressure leads to a tipping point, like a shift in the AMOC or immigration pressure from hotter areas to cooler areas, our current treatment of old people doesn’t fill me with confidence. I think in a crisis, we would sacrifice them anyway. We would write some sympathetic think pieces about it though.



  • Seeing a special screening of Brazil in 1984, when no one was sure it was even going to get released.

    I was driving home from the East Coast, saw the ad for the screening in LA (way pre-internet). Now, I could have continued home and seen my family or … who am I kidding? My family was terrible!

    I said my car broke down and couldn’t find a mechanic because … it was Christmas! Maybe that’s not what you’re looking for, but definitely my favourite.





  • That sort of what I was thinking, the different grinders actually produce different flavour, profiles, rather than better or worse. That’s a good point about the shape, I’m almost tempted to do it to try different burrs on the same coffee. My palate is shite, but the one of my son-in-law’s is pretty good, so maybe more of a fun thing than a practical thing.


  • Thanks for that. Definitely agree with the diminishing returns aspect. I have an okay palate, and I also drink about half milk, so not much more to be gained.

    I looked at the DF64 because it’s definitely a good deal compared to what’s out there (Weber [Yow! re: price]/Lagom/Bookoo/Zerno [also Yow]). I’m guessing the DF64 isn’t famously quiet though. Have you ever tried different burrs for different flavours?