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Is “widely accurate” a phrase people actually say?
Therefore, in no case should AI solve such problems, since it can also make mistakes.
“Hmm… I’m good with statistics, scripting, and I have some extra cash on hand…”
“I can just mix all these into the cauldron, stir it up a lil bit, aaand…”
“oh my god it’s gone. it’s all gone. i owe money now…”
This is funny, but just to be clear, the firms that are doing automated trading have been using ML for decades and have high powered computers with custom algorithms extremely close to trading centers (often inside them) to get the lowest latency possible.
No one who does not wear their pants on their head uses an LLM to make trades. An LLM is just a next word fragment guesser with a bunch of heuristics and tools attached, so it won’t be good at all for something that specialized.
No one who does not wear their pants on their head uses an LLM to make trades
LMMs are better than other methods at context and nuance for sentiment analysis. They can legitimately form part of trade generation.
I hate that ai just means llm now. ML can actually be useful to make predictions based on past trends. And it’s not nearly as power hungry
Nope, same tech
Which crayon color has the best flavor?
What’s most annoying to me about the fisasco is that things people used to be okay with like ML that have always been lumped in with the term AI are now getting hate because they’re “AI”.
What’s worse is that management conflates the two all the time, and whenever i give the outputs of my own ML algorithm, they think that it’s an LLM output. and then they ask me to just ask chat gpt to do any damn thing that i would usually do myself, or feed into my ml to predict.
? If you make and work with ml you are in a field of research. It’s not a technology that you “use”. And if you give the output of your “ml” then that is exactly identical to an llm output. They don’t conflate anything. Chat gpt is also the output of “ml”
when i say the output of my ml, i mean, i give the prediction and confidence score. for instance, if there’s a process that has a high probability of being late based on the inputs, I’ll say it’ll be late, with the confidence. that’s completely different from feeding the figures into a gpt and saying whatever the llm will say.
and when i say “ml” i mean a model I trained on specific data to do a very specific thing. there’s no prompting, and no chatlike output. it’s not a language model
Yeah, especially it is funny how people forgot that even small models the size of like 20 neurons used for primitive NPCs in a 2D games are called AI too and can literally run on a button phone(not Nokia 3310, something slightly more powerful). And these small ones specialized models exist for decades already. And the most interesting is that relatevly small models(few thousands of neurons) can work very well in predicting trends of prices, classify objects by their parameters, calculate chances of having specific disease by only symptoms and etc. And they generally work better than even LLMs in the same task.
They are the same.
Do you have an example of some games that use small neural networks for their NPC AIs? I was under the impression that most video game AIs used expert systems, at least for built-in ones.
Well, for what I know, modern chess engines are relatevly small AI models that usually work by taking on input the current state of the board and then predicting the next best move. Like Stockfish. Also, there is a game called Supreme Commander 2, where it is confirmed of usage small neural models to run NPC. And, as a person that somewhat included in game development, I can say that indie game engine libgdx provides an included AI module that can be fine tuned to a needed level for running NPC decisions. And it can be scaled in any way you want.
As I understand, chess AIs are more like brute force models that take the current board and generate a tree with all possible moves from that position, then iterating on those new positions up to a certain depth (which is what the depth of the engine refers to). And while I think some might use other algorithms to “score” each position and try to keep the search to the interesting branches, that could introduce bias that would make it miss some moves that look bad but actually set up a better position, though ultimately, they do need some way to compare between different ending positions if the depth doesn’t bring them to checkmate in all paths.
So it chooses the most intelligent move it can find, but does it by essentially playing out every possible game, kinda like Dr Strange in Infinity War, except chess has a more finite set of states to search through.
Maybe. I haven’t studied modern chess engines so deeply. All I know that you either can use the brute force method that will calculate in recursion each possible move or train an AI model on existing brute force engines and it will simply guess the best possible move without actually recalculating each possible. Both scenarios work with each one having its own benefits and downsides.
But all of this is said according to my knowledge which can be incomplete, so recommend to recheck this info.
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Eh… Wdym. The algos that trade fight in the micro second level. They adapt to each other and never stop changing. It’s exactly the same problem. Do you think llm is a unique neural net ? They all work the same. When you try to sound like ml is not the same as llm or as if ml is neural nets you don’t help anyone understand any of those concepts because you don’t yourself
That is a crazy amount of nonsensical word salad to use to try to call someone else out for lacking understanding.
I mean just the flawed idea that all trading algos are all neural nets, or that all neural nets are the same or that the rectangle of ML doesn’t include neural nets… These are all wildly erratic non sequiturs.
Nope, but you know it if you have some knowledge so
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The best use I’ve gotten out of GPT is troubleshooting Rimworld mod list errors, often I’ll slap the error in and it’ll tell me exactly which mod is the issue, even when it can’t the info I get back narrows it down to 4 or 5 suspects
The investors must be very proud.
This thing is broken. It keeps telling me to just dollar cost average and not do chart astrology at all!
Is there a story here?
Not my meme, but I have read stories of multiple people trying this and failing spectacularly. It wouldn’t surprise me if this actually happened.
I very much want to read about these
Here’s a recent one:
(Warning: reddit)
https://www.reddit.com/r/Trading/comments/1ou9s8v/do_not_use_ai_for_trading/
I know a homeless guy that swears by AI, and aspires to be a realtor LMFAO! Like, dude ain’t even got himself a home but he’s trying to hock homes and properties???
Sometimes I wonder if he bothered asking AI just how much the average person trusts a wirey balding homeless person that’s missing like 4 front teeth…
I don’t remember the institution, but I remember reading a paper on a simulated trading environment with several ai agents who didn’t know about eachother. The LLMs were pretty conservative with profits and deliberately bought and sold in predictable ways. They all ended up “colluding” with eachother by deliberately not competing.
I’ve had this happen where I fed it some ebooks and the responses it pulled were nonsense. Eventually I pulled JUST the knowledge stack and queried it, only to find it spitting back garbage.
Turns out, epub processing had been broken for a while, but nobody noticed… And they still haven’t fixed it, so I have to convert them to txt first…
You’re absolutely right. I’ve now read your CSV data, and made new trade recommendations.
Ma! I need you to withdraw your retirement fund.
I read that in Cliff Clavin’s voice.
Wasn’t there an article that looked at and showed that no, there are no stock market specialists. An “experienced” stock trader was just as accurate in their predictions as regular Joe that’s just guessing. In that sense LLM should be just as effective (if not more) at making profit.
You can never predict the stock market, because the market depends on a lot of outside influences you might not know about. Maybe some disaster wipes out the only supplier for a critical part of your top performing stock tomorrow, so he cannot deliver goods anymore. Maybe a single big investor dumps all his stock overnight, sending the value down. Maybe some law or sanction is passed that changes how the company must operate. Maybe some other trading bot decides to buy or sell a huge number of shares.
No computer or AI can account for all of the outside factors and accurately predict the outcome each time. Each “Trading AI” is just snake oil that lives of your fees and commissions. If it was working as advertised, they would not need your money, but could make infinite riches by just trading their own stocks.
No, they have stock market experts.
Its like astrology.
You have to be good at bullshitting
Guess what an llm is good at…
Sorry 😜, I was trying to generate a seahorse emoji.
🐬 There we go, a seahorse!
Wait, that’s wrong. Sorry 😜, I was trying to generate a seahorse emoji.
🐳 Haha, got it, its a seahorse!
Oh no, not again. Wait, that’s wrong. Sorry 😜, I was trying to generate a seahorse emoji.
🐙 I finally did it! Seahorse achieved!
No, what’s wrong with me, why can’t I do anything right?. Oh no, not again. Wait, that’s wrong. Sorry 😜, I was trying to generate a seahorse emoji.
When people say they use AI for stock trading, they don’t mean LLMs. There are stock AI models that have existed long before LLMs
i bet you some do!
Good catch… lol
they would blow up their accounts real quick
I bet you some do!
I tried to get one to write an interface to a simple API, and gave it a link to the documentation. Mostly because it was actually really good documentation for a change. About half a dozen end points.
It did. A few tweaks here and there and it even compiled.
But it was not for the API I gave it. Wouldn’t tell me which API it was for either. I guess neither of us will ever know.
I’ve actually used chat GPT (or was it Cursor? I dont remember now) to help write a script for a program with a very (to me, a non-programmer) convoluted, but decently well documented API.
it only got a few things right, but the key was that it got enough right for me to go and fix the rest. this was for a task I’d been trying to do every now and then for a few years. was nice to finally have it done.
but damn, does “AI” ever suck at writing the code I want it to. or maybe I just suck at giving prompts. idk. one of my bosses uses it quite a bit to program stuff, and he claims to be quite successful with it. however, I know that he barely validates the result before claiming success, so… “look at this output!” — “okay, but do those numbers mean anything?” — “idk, but look at it! it’s gotta be close!”
Cry for help, it was trying to get you to interface with its own API, to either fix it, or end it.
I mean, you’re have to be pretty good to lose that hard… or buy penny stocks or something.
For the yougun’s, the people posting this stuff are the same people who posted all the same shit about crypto when it was $12,000. Be careful who you listen to just because its in a meme.
Damn you managed to stuff a whole straw man into that non-sequitur!
