ETA: summary…
Author describes how agentic coding tools have disincentivized the developer training and mentorship pipeline that the software industry has implicitly relied on to produce seasoned developers, predicting that once the shortage is fully realized it could take years to reverse.
The solution proposed is for managers and senior developers to get ahead of this shortage by foregoing the immediate yet shortlived productivity maximization offered by the agent-multiplied-senior structure in favor of longterm sustainability by deliberately facilitating experience fan-out to juniors.
The methodology proposed is based on a successful nuclear engineering apprenticeship program carried out on active service naval submarines.
So their “solution” is for senior developers to keep giving work to junior developers… In order to prevent senior developer salaries from skyrocketing.
…the same junior developers that management and the investor class have stopped hiring.
Most seniors I know like mentoring newer engineers and would happily have more juniors on the team, but we don’t get to make hiring decisions. I don’t like that we have a glut of unemployed/underemployed new college grads and I feel bad for them, but I do not remotely care that management may have to pay me more than they’d like in 5 years because they decided they didn’t need a junior pipeline anymore. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
likely they are going to rely more on you or hire a smaller amount of senior devs, so they can avoid paying for junior or even entry level for fresh employees in the future.